Monday 5th March 2012

Dear Reader,

So the horses are all in the gate - but unless Beijing makes its mind up soon, there is a real prospect of no winner. If neither candidate gets 600 votes in the initial 3-way race, then after Albert Ho has been eliminated the pro-democracy block should, if they are sensible, come back in round 2 and file blank votes to underline the farcical nature of the pseudo-election - and since the Liberals vow not to support C Y Leung under any circumstances, neither of the remaining candidates might get the required 600 votes, in which case the election starts all over again, and new candidates can then come forward, which is perhaps what Beijing now wants, because if they don't have a candidate who has the support of half the committee and the general public, then they are in for a rough ride over the next 5 years or less.

Our poll on the probability of being the next CE currently has Henry Tang at 36.8%, C Y Leung at 41.3% and Someone Else at 19.5% - so please update your estimates, keeping in mind that "Someone Else" implies that there will be no winner in the first election. Remember, we want to know what you think their chances are, not whom you want to win. Your PIN is above.

NEW ARTICLE
Raking muck, Part 3
We now connect Joseph Lau to Executive Talent, and focus on a series of dubious transactions by Hycomm and the bubble in its stock while it did the coal mine hokey cokey, from which bubble Joseph Lau has profited hugely. We also look at the creation of Inno-Tech and the youngest infant mortality on GEM, Codebank. (5-Mar-2012)

RECENTLY
Raking muck, Part 2
Continuing our series, we look at a set of over-priced acquisitions and questionable transactions by China Post e-Commerce and others, building a matrix which demonstrates the close connections between the persons involved. We call on the SFC to investigate. (27-Feb-2012)

Raking muck, Part 1
In the first of a multi-part series, we delve into a transaction by the HK offshoot of Xinhua, the PRC's official news agency, and the people behind it. (21-Feb-2012)

IN OTHER NEWS
China Mobile (0941): Executive Director Lu Xiangdong assisting judicial authorities in the investigation of suspected financial issues.
Company announcement, 2-Mar-2012

SFC bans Miranda Hui Chi Cheung from re-entering industry for 10 years
SFC, 2-Mar-2012
This was her second offence - she was with VC Brokerage Ltd the first time. She left on 8-Sep-2008 then joined Polaris Securities (HK) Ltd on 3-Oct-2008. She was suspended for 4 months from 9-Apr-2009. Less than two years later she started personal dealing via her clients' accounts again.

Concentration warning in Chanceton (8020)
SFC, 1-Mar-2012
Don't take a chance on it!

PECS Register monthly update Part 1. Part 2
HK Government, 29-Feb-2012

Duo jailed for offering HK$28m bribes to Ao Man-long
ICAC, 29-Feb-2012

Court postpones insider dealing trial of former CITIC senior executive
SFC, 29-Feb-2012

Be Henry's neighbour for only HK$220m (US$28.4m)!
Company web site, 29-Feb-2012
Now's your chance to live like Hooray Henry - only 2 doors down from him at 3 York Road, NKIL 825 is for sale. It has a "covered" pool - but no word on whether it has a wine cellar.

Re Mitchel Dwayne Grotch
HK Court of First Instance, 29-Feb-2012
On how NOT to get a work visa in Hong Kong. You have to admire his ingenuity though.

HK Life (8212) buys 49% of Baron's School of Music Ltd for HK$47.04m
Company announcement, 28-Feb-2012
The owner of the BVI vendor is not disclosed. The net assets are not disclosed. The $96m "preliminary valuation" by an unnamed valuer is at 9.2x turnover and 238 times earnings for 2011. The price appears to be highly inflated.

Former HAECO director convicted of insider dealing
SFC, 27-Feb-2012

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