Sunday 11th March 2012

Dear Reader,

The latest crowd-sourced odds on CE: in the last 4 days, the chance of Henry Tang being CE dropped from 35.5% to 34.8%, C Y Leung advanced from 43.1% to 44.2% and Someone Else (implying another election round) slipped from 18.9% to 18.2%. We now have 1003 participants. By popular request we are adding a question 5 to the poll - whom would you vote for, if you were allowed to vote?

Please update your estimates and cast your vote. Your PIN is above.

NEW ARTICLES
Raking muck, Part 5
In the penultimate episode, we look at a transaction in progress by Railsmedia (0745) and how it connects with CPEC (8041), COMG (0254) and 3 shells. We also introduce a 10th listed company to the story, Zhi Cheng (8130) which has such a track record of value destruction that it has consolidated its shares by 200,000 to 1 since 2007. (11-Mar-2012)

Raking muck, Part 6
Concluding our hexalogy, we look at a recent deal by COMG (0254). Existing shareholders were diluted to 2.54% in an acquisition valued at HK$1242m for a business which would need capital of HK$3.6m. We estimate that the vendor has already cashed in about $1812m by selling convertible bonds and shares. We also look at what comes next for COMG, and some unfinished business for the authorities. (11-Mar-2012)

Yes, we have no gavels
(11-Mar-2012)

Apophis debunked
Angelo Paratico's article "Comet heading straight for earth - don't panic" (SCMP today) is alarmist, sensationalist and bad science. (11-Mar-2012)

RECENT ARTICLES
Raking muck, Part 4
We take a deeper dive into the transactions of Inno-Tech (8202), and call on the SFC to investigate. We also call on the regulators either to scrap the requirement for "independent" financial advisers in listed company deals, or make it work by randomly assigning them through a jury pool system. The current system of opinion-shopping to IFAs of Last Resort is a waste of investors' money and provides false comfort. (7-Mar-2012)

Raking muck, Part 3
We now connect Joseph Lau to Executive Talent, and focus on a series of dubious transactions by Hycomm and the bubble in its stock while it did the coal mine hokey cokey, from which bubble Joseph Lau has profited hugely. We also look at the creation of Inno-Tech and the youngest infant mortality on GEM, Codebank. (5-Mar-2012)

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